Adaptation is the new advantage in defense

Much has been said about Anduril and other emerging defense tech firms. In most conversations, the views tend to polarize; either they are destined to dominate traditional primes, or they are riding a wave of AI hype with no path to scale. But the reality is more nuanced. 

Anduril has made real progress. Early criticisms about understanding mission needs or lacking acquisition know-how have largely been addressed through strategic hires. Concerns surrounding manufacturing and production are being addressed through initiatives such as the Arsenal One facility in Columbus, Ohio, and targeted acquisitions. While past performance remains a challenge in some segments, it is no longer a moat protecting legacy players. 

At the same time, traditional firms like Boeing, RTX, Honeywell, Safran, Lockheed, General Dynamics, and Northrop Grumman are not standing still. They continue to lead in manufacturing scale, proven performance, and strong customer relationships. While they may be more risk-averse, many have world-class innovation talent and disruptive R&D quietly in motion. 

What is really shifting is the defense sector’s appetite for business model risk. Nontraditional firms, whether venture-backed, private equity-owned, or commercial tech companies entering the market, are placing bold bets on new approaches to delivery, teaming, and speed. That momentum is forcing the broader ecosystem to adapt, just as SpaceX and Maxar reshaped the space sector. 

Yes, newer entrants will face real scaling challenges. Integrating acquisitions, building production capacity, and navigating the DoD’s complex requirements process takes time. But this is where partnerships, operating discipline, and the right kind of support from those with experience (i.e., traditional firms) can make the difference. 

Change is here. Adaptation, not incumbency, will be the deciding factor.